Meridian is a quantitative consultancy for decisions that cross borders — geopolitics, climate, macro, and the orbital economy. We price the unpredictable using data, liquidity, and models that work in public.
Every engagement runs on the same quantitative stack — calibrated probabilities, not narratives. We work wherever the question is global and the stakes are real.
Elections, conflicts, sanctions, regime change. Probability-weighted scenarios for desks and policy teams.
Hurricane, heat, precipitation, and ENSO models for reinsurers, utilities, and ag trading desks.
Launch cadence, collision risk, payload markets, and the commercial LEO transition. Telemetry-driven.
Central-bank paths, CPI surprise, FX regimes, sovereign credit. Built for allocators and research desks.
Brent, gas, power, and critical minerals. OPEC decisions, grid failures, and transition-era supply shocks.
Force posture, escalation modeling, maritime and air activity. Confidential briefings for allied agencies.
Model capability curves, compute supply, chip export flows, benchmark timelines. For strategy and policy.
Outbreak trajectories, vaccine rollouts, WHO declarations, and drug approval timelines.
A snapshot from the Meridian index — probability estimates our team publishes and defends. Updated hourly, priced against real positions.
We translate a client's decision into a set of falsifiable questions with explicit resolution sources — never vague "outlooks."
We combine structural models (epi, climate, macro) with live prediction-market prices and our own analyst forecasts, reconciled via Bayesian weighting.
Every number we publish is scored against outcomes. Brier scores and calibration curves are open — our track record is a feature, not a pitch deck.
Dashboards, briefings, data feeds, or bespoke research — whatever shape the decision needs. Most clients start with a monthly retainer.
Research-grade models, operator-grade delivery. The pieces behind the numbers.
We don't chase accuracy — we chase calibration. Our ensemble combines Bayesian priors, market-implied odds, and analyst judgment, scored continuously against resolved outcomes.
Every forecast is timestamped, scored, and open. Brier score, log loss, and calibration curves — not cherry-picked wins.
NOAA, IMF, NASA, WHO, NORAD, ECMWF, and proprietary satellite + OSINT feeds.
Stress every assumption. Shocks, tail-risk paths, and counterfactuals — in a sharable link.
Probabilities, confidence intervals, and audit trails — streamed to your pipeline. Python, TS, and Rust SDKs.
From one-off briefings to embedded analyst teams. All built on the same calibrated backbone.
“Most consultants sell you a narrative. Meridian sells you a number — and stands behind it, scored, every quarter.”
Every engagement starts with a 30-minute briefing call. Tell us the decision you're trying to make; we'll sketch what a quantitative answer looks like.